Cascade Commentary


Polls open for voters in the UK General Election

Voters have went to the polls today (Thursday, 8 June 2017) in the snap election called by Theresa May in her hopes of securing a stronger majority to "deliver a successful Brexit". When the election was called 68% in a YouGov poll indicated that Brexit was the single most important issue. At that time, voter intention in another YouGov poll showed a 24% lead for the Conservatives ahead of Labour. 

Since then, however, voters have turned to domestic matters with concerns raised over public services such as the NHS, Police force and Education as well as criticism over Pension and Social Care reforms tabled in the Conservative manifesto. The final Ipsos MORI/Economist Issues Index shows that 61% of voters now consider the NHS to be one of the biggest issues facing Britain, up 13 percentage points from last month. The dreadful terror attacks have rightly reinforced the nation's appreciation for the hard work those in public services provide as voter concerns over national security have risen. As a result, the Labour party has steadily gained momentum with its manifesto pledge to "bring an end to austerity and invest heavily in public services", reducing at times May's lead to only one percentage point. 

The Conservative party will be hoping to secure many of the 2015 UKIP votes in key boroughs in the Midlands and the North of England while also taking seats from Labour seats that backed Brexit. The big question is whether UKIP seats will swing Labour or Conservative. Labour will be hoping to secure seats in Nuneaton (declared 1am), Gower (declared 4am), Brighton Kemptown (declared 6am), Derby North (declared 6am) and Morley & Outwood (declared 7am).

The Conservatives on the other hand have been thought to be able to gain a significantly stronger lead as they hope to claim a raft of key seats in Bury South (declared 02:00), Dagenham & Rainham (declared 03:00), Great Grimsby (declared 03:30), Ilford North (declared 03:30), Mansfield (declared 03:30), Don Valley (declared 04:00), Newcastle under Lyme (declared 04:30), Bolsover (declared 04:30), Batley & Spen (declared 05:00), City of Chester (declared 05:00), Halifax (declared 05:00), Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East (declared 05:00), Derbyshire North East (declared 06:00) and Lancaster & Fleetwood (declared 06:00). 

Ipsos MORI report 55% of those polled are happy with Theresa May as Prime Minister as opposed to 31% for Jeremy Corbyn. We will be monitoring the results closely as we have seen many times how the polls have been wrong. Do give us a call should you wish to discuss any of this further.

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